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 Post subject: China's economy
PostPosted: Mon Mar 21, 2016 5:48 pm 
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Joined: Mon Jan 14, 2008 9:28 pm
Posts: 2888
Home Schooled: Yes
Location: I'm not lost! I'm locationally challenged. -John M. Ford
I'm toying with the idea of going long on shorting China. A few months back I made a few bucks off of the stock market collapse, and I feel like the time is right again. The Economist rates a hard landing as a "high probability, very high impact scenario." (https://gfs.eiu.com/Article.aspx?articl ... cleId=2871)

However, other armchair analysts think that China can delay for a few more years, arguing that the restructuring (prioritzing domestic consumption/services over exports/manufacturing) is working. (http://seekingalpha.com/article/3895116 ... xt-2-years)

Thoughts? I'm not expecting China to collapse all at once--a billion people are worth a lot, economically speaking--but I also think the economic rise has been greatly overvalued. China needs domestic consumption as Europe teeters on a Grexit/Brexit, and I just don't think the government can restructure the economy that fast.

Exports are easy for bamboo capitalism--it's essentially free money--but domestic consumption has always been difficult for economies which are more centrally commanded.

_________________
There cannot be a crisis next week. My schedule is already full.
- Henry Kissinger


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 Post subject: Re: China's economy
PostPosted: Mon Mar 21, 2016 10:03 pm 
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Tsarcastic
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Joined: Mon Jun 18, 2007 6:31 pm
Posts: 3512
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Location: Under my own vine and fig tree
Related, the amount of time for Chinese firms to collect cash for completed sales has jumped up to 83 days, which is basically double compared to other emerging markets. The total accounts receivable is now 590b which is more than the entire output of the Republic of China (Taiwan).

Not great, Bob.

_________________
"It is not possible to choose between injustice and disorder. They are synonyms." -- Nicolás Gómez Dávila

~IM_R


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 Post subject: Re: China's economy
PostPosted: Tue Mar 22, 2016 12:08 am 
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Joined: Sat Feb 16, 2013 6:11 am
Posts: 348
Home Schooled: Yes
Location: In a library somewhere
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDrfE9I8_hs

_________________
Caleb

Hammy wrote:
Also, Cashley died in a hole. I don't know why you keep trusting him. I mean sure he's super good at mafia and knows exactly what he's doing, but I feel like maybe some game you would just not trust him. :P Props to you Cashley, always making my games exciting.


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 Post subject: Re: China's economy
PostPosted: Tue Mar 22, 2016 8:30 am 
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Joined: Mon Jan 14, 2008 9:28 pm
Posts: 2888
Home Schooled: Yes
Location: I'm not lost! I'm locationally challenged. -John M. Ford
The Invisible Hand wrote:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDrfE9I8_hs

/thread

_________________
There cannot be a crisis next week. My schedule is already full.
- Henry Kissinger


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