I'm toying with the idea of going long on shorting China. A few months back I made a few bucks off of the stock market collapse, and I feel like the time is right again. The Economist rates a hard landing as a "high probability, very high impact scenario." (https://gfs.eiu.com/Article.aspx?articl ... cleId=2871
However, other armchair analysts think that China can delay for a few more years, arguing that the restructuring (prioritzing domestic consumption/services over exports/manufacturing) is working. (http://seekingalpha.com/article/3895116 ... xt-2-years
Thoughts? I'm not expecting China to collapse all at once--a billion people are worth a lot, economically speaking--but I also think the economic rise has been greatly overvalued. China needs domestic consumption as Europe teeters on a Grexit/Brexit, and I just don't think the government can restructure the economy that fast.
Exports are easy for bamboo capitalism
--it's essentially free money--but domestic consumption has always been difficult for economies which are more centrally commanded.